.
After months of accusations, unilateral steps and increased tension, Europe’s southern flank, the East Mediterranean is heading to become a conflict zone.
The offshore gas success stories of Egypt, Israel and Cyprus, are pushed back by the growing confrontational mood shown by Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan.
The latter, under pressure due to an unexpected election defeat in the major Turkish cities, has shown an increased appetite to promote Turkish offshore claims by sending two Turkish drillships to the Economic Exclusion Zone of Cyprus, an EU member country.
Even after strong warning signals by Brussels and Washington, Ankara’s maritime forces have set sail and are in contested waters.
European Council President Donald Tusk has warned that “its continued escalation (Turkey) and challenge to the sovereignty of our Member State Cyprus will inevitably lead the EU to respond in full solidarity”.
Brussels already has decided to suspend negotiations on the Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement and agrees not to hold further meetings of the high-level dialogues for the time being.
The EU has also reduced the pre-accession assistance to Turkey for 2020 and invites the European Investment Bank to review its lending activities in Turkey, notably with regard to sovereign-backed lending.
This will be another hit for Turkey’s already struggling economy. However, even though the EU is threatening additional sanctions if Ankara continues drilling, it is a statement by a toothless giant.
Ankara understands only too well that Brussels still needs Turkey to block a major route for illegal migrants and as part of its security strategy.
This could change in the coming weeks. On two levels developments could lead to a supra-regional security block, with military means, to counter Turkish interests in and around Cyprus.
After a very long absence of US military support to Cyprus, there is a new wind blowing in Washington. With a bipartisan bill in the US Congress, the so-called East Med Act has been approved.
The US Senate Foreign Affairs Relations Committee ratified it in June. The latter Act will allow the US to fully support the trilateral partnership of Israel, Greece and Cyprus.
It opens also the door for a full US lifting of its long-standing arms embargo on Cyprus. Ankara, as a member of NATO, always has been pushing for the embargo.
The East Med Act is a reaction not only to Turkish encroachment on Cyprus or the East Med but at the same time a reaction to Ankara’s growing friendship with Russia and Iran.
Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence system is not taken lightly. Washington already is considering further sanctions on Turkey, such as a halt to the delivery of U.S. F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey.
At the same time, the East Med parties are not sitting still. Greek energy company Energean has made headlines after the $750 million purchase of Italy’s Edison E&P assets, which include North African operations in Egypt and other areas.
The Greek-Italian cooperation, officially only on a commercial basis, however, it is deepening militarily too.
After the Turkish navy blockade of Italian IOC ENI’s offshore activities in Cyprus, Rome has become heavily involved.
French eyes are also on Cyprus-Turkey at present. A growing military-economic strategy could be developing from the outer-layers of the conflict region.
Increased energy-related cooperation, especially in Greece and Egypt, could lead to direct security arrangements also for the Cyprus issue.
An East Med Cold War is already in place, especially after Israel has hinted at “full support” for Cyprus in a conflict with the Turks.
The latter is a real option, looking at the continuing military build-up in the region, and Erdogan’s willingness to up-the-ante. NATO, Europe’s main military stability guarantor, is, however, looking at a possible Gordian Knot situation.
By possibly supporting Cyprus and its regional compatriots, NATO could be looking at an internal alliance conflict, in which allies are pitted against each other.
Cyprus can count on the Greek support, while Italy and France have hinted their support. In this conflict, Turkey stands alone, as no NATO member will back Erdogan’s approach.
For NATO the situation is dire, as Turkey holds the second largest army of the alliance and is needed for logistical issues in the war against terrorism.
Until now Ankara has received the benefit of the doubt, but looking at the US, Brussels and NATO, this time is over.
If Ankara proceeds, the region will not be engulfed by a new energetic economic cooperation and stability model, but by widespread destabilization and military conflict.
Over the last 50 years, all this was overcome by diplomats.
Looking at Erdogan’s wounded ego, election defeats and potential splits in his AK Party and growing Russian support, unexpected developments and irrational thoughts could easily put a lighter to the powder keg.
